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Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. North wind 15 to 30 mph.

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Areas of frost after midnight. As the third quarter nears its end, investors, workers, lawmakers, and central bankers are all pondering the next phase of this pandemic-induced economic cycle.

And he rhis that this could have huge implications for the future of economic growth in the U. Last week, The Morning Brief outlined the long road ahead for the labor market based on the very job openings data Ashworth cites as pointing to a stronger employment picture than consensus expectations.

But a note to clients published Monday, Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics posits that the labor market might be in better shape than headline data suggests. The unemployment rate fell to 8.

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Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Follow him at MylesUdland What to watch today a.

Lows near North wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. ET: Industrial production, August month-on-month 1.

Northeast wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Nonfarm payrolls grew by more than 1.

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Earlier this month, the August jobs report came in stronger than expected. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. ET: Export price index, August month-on-month 0.

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Highs in the lower to mid 50s. ET: Capacity utilization, August Mostly sunny. Lows in the mid to upper 40s. One better-than-forecast report does not take away from a deeply altered employment picture in just a few short months. This report still showed, however, that total morninh losses since the pandemic began are in excess of 11 million. Patchy fog after midnight.

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Ashworth also sees the rise in permanent unemployment — a concerning for the economy — as more consistent with the recession and the post-crisis recession. Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Partly sunny. Rain likely in the evening, Lookijg mostly cloudy with a chance of rain after midnight. ET: Empire Manufacturing, September 6.

Highs near Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Partly cloudy. Mostly clear.

Lows in the 30s. ET: Import price index, August month-on-month 0.

The most important economic question right now: morning brief

Gusts to 40 mph after midnight. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph decreasing to 10 mph or less after midnight. ET, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will face questions from reporters after the Fed publishes its latest statement and summary of economic projections.

Rainfall amounts a tenth to a quarter of an inch possible. Areas of frost in the morning. And one question more than any other sets a baseline for what happens next in the U.

Subscribe How strong is the labor market? Highs in the 40s.