Just a quick scan of news sites helped me put together a list of countries who have announced an end date for gasoline- or diesel-powered car sales:
- China (no date set)
- India 13 years from now
- France 23 years
- Britain 23 years
- Norway 8 years
- Scotland 15 years
- Netherlands 8 years
These countries have set EV sales targets, but no end date has been set for gasoline- and diesel-powered passenger vehicle sales to end…yet.
- Denmark (I could have sworn they set a date)
Geographically speaking, the map above may not seem impressive, but in 2016, the countries mentioned above, represented 62.9% of all passenger vehicle sales for the entire planet!* (I was a bit surprised by that)
Here’s how they stack up:
- China 35.1%
- Japan 6%
- Germany 4.8%
- India 4.3%
- Britain 3.9%
- France 2.9%
- Korea 2.2%
- Spain 1.7%
- Netherlands 0.6%
- Austria 0.5%
- Denmark 0.3%
- Portugal 0.3%
- Norway 0.2%
- Ireland 0.2%
- Scotland (included in Britain’s percentage)
China’s the big dog (both geographically and in percentage of cars sold), at 35.1%. The next in line, at least as far as the countries listed above go, is Japan, at 6%. May be that’s why Mary Barra’s comment about China’s decision seems to have been toned down, recently… Heck, the U.S. is only 9.9%. As such, the U.S. is the largest country, in passenger vehicle sales volume, that hasn’t posted an end date for ICE vehicles or plans to do so.
This brings a few questions to mind:
- If the stated goals are upheld, what happens to the price of gasoline?
- If gas prices collapse, wouldn’t that dramatically reduce the number of gas stations. accelerating the switch, globally?
- Will pre-owned gasoline- & diesel-powered cars become valuable collectibles or, due to the lack of gas stations, junkyard fodder?
- Will we finally see people change careers from fossil fuel industries (dangerous to both workers and the environment) to renewable energy careers, accelerating change?
- Has the United States’ time, as a world leader, ended for good, now that China’s and India’s middle classes are rising in purchasing power, while ours is being decimated by income inequality? Are we cool with that?
- Has Fiat decided to just roll over and die?
*according to sales statistics from The International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers.